Visiting with many dealers during the past few weeks, and drawing heavily on my own observations and analysis based upon my keen insight (or not!), I am prepared to offer my opinions. Please remember they are worth approximately what you are paying for them! Now let’s break it down:

• The outdoor power equipment (OPE) market and related markets are directly tied to housing and the overall economy. Although the economy still has wobbly knees, it should be in recovery mode this coming year. Housing is showing signs of recovery. If this assumption proves correct, we could see a nice uptick in demand for OPE, landscape and light construction equipment. Keep your fingers crossed!

• The lifestyle or large property owner (LPO) market is largely influenced by the general economy, job availability and stock market performance. If Wall Street can continue its growth of recent months, unemployment eases back below 10 percent and people are feeling more secure with their jobs and income, this market, like OPE, could be in for a better year compared with the last two or three. Keep your fingers crossed!

• The construction market has experienced as brutal of a business environment as the OPE and LPO market segments, if not more so, the past two or three years. Congress will most likely have the greatest influence on whether we will see significant improvement in this sector. Highway construction and other infrastructure improvements hold the key and Congress holds the purse strings. If Congress can find more dollars from the original “bail out” funds and if they have the political willpower to increase highway trust fund expenditures, prospects for this segment of the equipment industry could be much improved. Keep your fingers crossed!

• Finally, what about agricultural equipment sales in 2010? Ag sales are directly related to commodity prices. Although we have experienced improvement in dairy prices, the livestock sector overall is rather anemic at the moment. Similarly, there is always a fine line globally between a surplus and a shortage of grain. Until the final numbers are in, it appears we will have a pretty good balance in the pipeline to keep prices above cost of production. The real unknown is what will happen to input prices. Assuming they hold steady this spring, 2010 could be a decent year, but not a stellar one. Wholegoods and parts will likely experience moderate declines compared to record years of 2007, 2008 and even 2009. Keep your fingers crossed!

I guess I’ve said that last part a lot. Keep your fingers crossed! Perhaps this cautionary, yet hopeful stance is indicative of the volatile, uneasy, nervous situation we find ourselves in on all fronts. No one knows with any degree of certainty what will happen in 2010. I am trying to be as optimistic as possible, but I also feel a high degree of caution is warranted. There are too many variables that could turn this vulnerable economy on its ear and change all the bets. While I do have several degrees in economics, the best I can say is … Keep your fingers crossed! …and that’s the way I see it.